Originally Posted On leagueofdegenerates.blogspot.com October 11, 2023
Original Author: Wings
The Commissioner’s Report, Week 5:
Holy. Moly. Guacamole. Week 5 in the LOD was something wasn’t it? A few records were set and Monday night proved to be a thriller between Chuck and Nauch to cap off the night. The league continued its trend of scoring and what is a tight competition for both playoff seeds and the Commissioner’s Cup as the first third of the season comes to a close. It’s truly anyone’s guess as to how the standings will look with byes and the recent uptick in big-name fantasy injuries impacting team strategies, but I’m sure it’ll keep me rock hard.
It’s a long post this week, buckle in!
Week 5 Results and Stats:
| Week 5 | MoVal | |||
| Place | Team | PF | W/L | Points |
| 1 | Erik | 271.4 | W | 25 |
| 2 | Rob | 216.2 | L | 18 |
| 3 | Wings | 196.9 | W | 16 |
| 4 | Bryan | 185.7 | W | 13 |
| 5 | Gio | 163.7 | W | 11 |
| 6 | Chuck | 161.1 | W | 9 |
| 7 | Nauch | 156.6 | L | 6 |
| 8 | Ryan | 153.7 | L | 4 |
| 9 | Ant | 148.7 | L | 2 |
| 10 | Joe | 102.2 | L | 1 |
| Scoring Stats | ||||
| Period | Avg PF | Spread | Top Score | Low Score |
| This Week | 175.62 | 169.2 | 271.4 (ERK) | 102.2 (JOE) |
| Last Week | 155.89 | 95.9 | 221.4 (WGS) | 125.5 (RYN) |
| Difference | +19.73 | +73.30 | +50.00 | -23.3 |
| Season Average | 161.17 | 98.28 | 218.60 | 120.32 |
| Difference | +14.45 | +70.92 | +52.80 | -18.12 |
| 2022Week 5 | 154.01 | 89.80 | 204.2 (WGS) | 114.4 (ANT) |
| Difference | +21.62 | +79.40 | +67.20 | -12.2 |
| 2023 CC Standings | Playoff Picture | |||||||||
| Place | Team | PTS | Behind | Interval | Place | Team | W-L | PF | ∆ | |
| 1 | Gio | 76 | – | – | 1 (bye) | Gio | 5-0 | 911.4 | – | |
| 2 | Ryan | 62 | -14 | -14 | 2 (bye) | Ryan | 3-2 | 829.9 | 2 GB | |
| 3 | Chuck | 62 | -14 | 0 | 3 | Chuck | 3-2 | 826.3 | -3.6 | |
| 4 | Roberto | 62 | -14 | 0 | 4 | Bryan | 3-2 | 799.1 | -27.2 | |
| 5 | Wings | 55 | -21 | -7 | 5 | Wings | 2-3 | 858.6 | 1 GB | |
| 6 | Erik | 52 | -24 | -3 | 6 | Erik | 2-3 | 841.4 | -17.2 | |
| 7 | Joe | 51 | -25 | -1 | 7 | Rob | 2-3 | 818.2 | -23.2 | |
| 8 | Bryan | 49 | -27 | -2 | 8 | Joe | 2-3 | 765.8 | -52.4 | |
| 9 | Nauch | 44 | -32 | -5 | 9 | Nauch | 2-3 | 743.4 | -22.4 | |
| 10 | Ant | 12 | -64 | -32 | 10 | Ant | 1-4 | 664.4 | 1 GB | |
Commish’s Analysis
- Record-Setting Week and Potentially Record-Setting Season
Before diving into the rest of the league, I need to tip my cap to Erik vs. Roberto’s matchup and unpack the amount of records and other crazy stats that it brought up. Not only did Erik’s Bears come out of nowhere Thursday to all but assure his win versus Roberto, and then come out of nowhere again to shatter the nearly three-year-old scoring record previously held by Gio (262.25, 2020W16) and notch the league’s first 270-point score. This was far from the end of the record-setting craziness:
- Roberto’s 216-point performance sets the record for highest score in a loss, also previously held by Gio (203.55, 2020W2) and are the only two 200+ point losses in league history.
- Gio’s loss was to Nauch, who scored 215, which is still one point lower than Roberto’s score this week
- This matchup’s point total (487.6) one-ups the previous highest combined score of all-time of (443.45, 2019W10) that was also set by an Erik vs. Roberto matchup all the way back in 2019.
- In this matchup, Roberto also set what was then the all-time highest score of 256.9, which would be held until Gio broke it. It’s all a crazy full-circle moment if you ask me
The insane amount of scoring wasn’t exclusively limited to this titanic clash, though. Last week was the second-highest average scoring week for the League on record. You may remember me mentioning in TCR Week 3 that week 5 2021 is the highest-scoring week of the Sleeper Era with a 186.99 average score; well, this season we’ve now had the second-and-third highest scoring weeks occur. The record is still safe to me, but I do think we are trending towards this being the highest scoring season of the Sleeper era if this keeps up.
| 2023 Avg (W5) | 161.17 |
| 2022 Avg | 150.11 |
| 2021 Avg | 156.73 |
| 2020 Avg | 156.28 |
| 2019 Avg | 154.78 |
Pointflation smh thanks to the fuckin Gringo.
- League competitiveness is at one of its highest periods in history
Ignoring the 1 and 10 seeds for now, Week 5 continued the Week 4 trend of the top and bottom halves of the league playing Freaky Friday. This has resulted in a very tight pair of standings that made me want to take a look at how it stacks up versus previous seasons from a competitive standpoint.
Looking at this through both playoffs and CC, since each gives more weight to wins and PF, respectively. Below are a couple summary tables on league competitiveness. I’ve included the summary tables here but you can see full calcs on this sheet.
| Playoff Seeding Index (PSI) Differentials Thru Week 5 | |||||
| Places | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
| 1st and 10th | 4.0247 | 5.029265 | 3.008285 | 4.022495 | 4.0161 |
| 2nd and 10th | 2.01655 | 4.03422 | 2.005005 | 4.01634 | 4.01536 |
| 1st and 9th | 3.0168 | 4.017665 | 3.008135 | 3.016185 | 3.02186 |
| 2nd and 9th | 1.00865 | 3.02262 | 2.004855 | 3.01003 | 3.02112 |
| 1st and 2nd | 2.00815 | 0.995045 | 1.00328 | 0.006155 | 0.00074 |
| 9th and 10th | 1.0079 | 1.0116 | 0.00015 | 1.00631 | 0.99424 |
* PSI is calculated as Wins + (Total PF/1000) and is used as a shorthand way to sort league by playoff standings
| CC Point Differentials Thru Week 5 | |||||
| Places | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
| 1st and 10th | 64 | 70 | 50 | 60 | 73 |
| 2nd and 10th | 50 | 58 | 40 | 59 | 63 |
| 1st and 9th | 32 | 58 | 45 | 49 | 61 |
| 2nd and 9th | 18 | 46 | 35 | 48 | 51 |
| 1st and 2nd | 14 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 9th and 10th | 32 | 12 | 5 | 27 | 35 |
*Commissioner Cup introduced 2023, previous season’s stats for research purposes only
“Wtf does this even mean u nerd?” Well long story short, it’s a dogfight if you’re not the Tank Lord Ant. Shocker right?
A deeper explanation (that you may need to look at the reference sheet to understand fully):
2a) Gio’s lead isn’t as bulletproof as you think
Gio is statistically off to the best start in the history of the Sleeper Era with a PSI of 5.09114 versus Wings last season 5.085265 (a PF difference of 59). This is also the first time that first seed is a full 2 games ahead of second place at this point in a season
Though this doesn’t tell the whole story.
- Looking at Commish Cup, Gio actually ties the lowest # of points for first place in the CC through 5 weeks– Gio led in 2020 with 76 points as well. Though the gap between first and second is significantly bigger at 14
- Gio’s win this week was versus second-place Ryan and by a relatively small 10-point margin, with both performing below-average last week.
- If he loses this game instead, that 14-point, 2-game lead is suddenly a 4 point, 1 game lead and much more in line with the highly-competitive 2021 season
- Gio’s start is actually tracking very closely to my 5-0 start last season. In both cases, opponents were scoring well-below the league average (Gio’s Opponents this week have averaged 136.98 points this season, while Wings’ averaged 134.89). If there’s the same sort of regression here that there was last season, things can change very quickly
- My lawyers have informed me that I also need to note Gio has been averaging a higher score (182.28) vs me last season (170.53) during this run, but it doesn’t make the above false!
2b) Ant did the right thing waving the white flag
While Ant’s start is not the worst in the Sleeper Era (that honor belongs to Joe-10 back in 2019) or even the worst 10th place team in Week 5, he is definitely in one of the biggest holes to climb out of
- Ant’s 12 Commish Cup points through 5 weeks is the lowest for a last-place team at this point in the year, which shows consistently low week-to-week scoring potential (averaging 132.88 points a week)
- The current 32-point gap between 9th and 10th is the second-largest in the period, nearly touching the 35-point gap Joe-5 had racked up in 2019. This shows Ant is a clear step below the other 9 and making a push even with W/L records being as close as they are would be a tall order
- Ant’s situation is very similar to where he found himself in 2020 at this point in the season… but that year he had made the decision to tank right after the draft. While actively trying for 5 weeks this season, it netted him about 1 extra win
With Ant being pretty much the only team in position to tank, he should be netting himself a nice draft reset for next season.
2c) Ignoring outliers, it’s a parity party
My fav stat to look at from those tables is the difference between 2nd and 9th. It’s by far the lowest it has ever been with both metrics. The same goes for looking at the spread between total PF on the season, not much is separating the top 9.
| PF Differentials Thru Week 5 | |||||
| Places | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
| 1st and 10th | 247 | 342.2 | 226.1 | 295.85 | 218.6 |
| 2nd and 10th | 194.2 | 292.65 | 214.1 | 224.95 | 211.2 |
| 1st and 9th | 168 | 226.2 | 175.8 | 232.75 | 218.55 |
| 2nd and 9th | 115.2 | 176.65 | 163.8 | 161.85 | 211.15 |
| 1st and 2nd | 52.8 | 49.55 | 12 | 70.9 | 7.4 |
| 9th and 10th | 79 | 116 | 50.3 | 63.1 | 0.05 |
Any way you cut it, nobody’s playoff seed is safe quite yet.
Postgame Interviews
ERIK (P1)
Congrats on what is obviously your best performance this season and the best single-game performance ever. What was it like to see your team collectively go off like this?
“Hey Wings, happy to join you in this week LODSPN. I can truly say this is an amazing feeling because I feel like my team played to their full potential finally! I hope my team keeps performing her (sic) on out”
You’ll be hitting the final member of the Cheers squad next week and he’s back on his Chane BS. How are you game planning to make sure he’s defeated again?
“My game plan is to continue watching tik toks on who to sit/start and I know we will come out on top because we don’t need to collude to win. Consistency is what we are looking for and the hope is the team could have the same performance next week. Cheers squad, let’s ride 🐴”
ROB (P2)
Congrats on second this week.. but I’m sure the people want to know what’s the mood in Rancho after what is one of the toughest Ls in league history
“This is bad. I’m tired. My team is tired. Feels like a CTE hit.
Im almost full AB at the moment ”
I’m sure your squad will be bloodthirsty next week. Feel bad for the guy you’re gonna be playing…. Anything you wanna say to him
“Yea , DONT EVER GO TO JAIL OR YOULL GET FUCKED “
WINGS (P3)
I want to use this opportunity to say that, although I just destroyed Ant’s hopes for a miracle comeback this season, that I do not condone violence against Arabs and my heart goes out to innocent lives suffering in the Middle East. Free Palestine.
But also, fuck those slimy terrorists that think that they can give your trade a D and not be punished. They do not have a place in Paradise with Allah.
Commissioner Announcement
I’ve been collecting a lot of stats in the background as I do these weekly write-ups. It’s really been inspiring me to use my spare time to make an earnest effort at compiling a League History that the Blogger Boys have been looking to add.
I’m pleased to announce Project LODPedia. A combined statistical database and written account of the League to serve as a point of reference as we continue to evolve and contribute more to our rich history and lore. This has been and will be a pretty big undertaking, but I am confident that in the coming months that we will slowly but surely be populating the site with new stuff, which may also need the help of some of our older members to add additional perspectives and potential sources of information.
That or I lose interest in it and move onto some other passion project by December. We’ll see what happens. Stay tuned.