Originally Posted On leagueofdegenerates.blogspot.com October 17, 2023
Original Author: Chuck
Gentleman, welcome to a special edition of the blog. It is your boy Chuck here and I have decided to go through some stat’s through the season so far and stir some shit up as I hope this causes some of yall to look at things differently and see if the NUMBERS LIE or TELL THE TRUTH. This was inspired because of the Commissioners Cup actually and the way Wings brought that to life has been great for the League in the competitiveness as well as this new aspect to play for. As Wings numbers are showing the difference between last season and this season and overall scoring. I am bringing you these statistics based off of the season so far. There will be one more of these at the end of Week 14 when the regular season is over. to see the prediction of the last Table that will be presented.
The First Table we have is: Who has had the toughest schedule to start the season. This table is based off of the total points scored from your Weeks 1-6 opponents and taking the average. Also taking the records of all 6 of your opponents and combining them.
To better explain here is Nauch’s as he is had the toughest schedule.
Ex. Nauch has faced Joe, Gio, Erik, Bryan, Chuck and Ryan. There total PF when added is 5,968. I then took this and divided it by 36 as they have each played 6 games. Then Nauch’s average is 165.8.
Based off of the current Standing’s you can see that the Top 4 toughest schedules are your 6 – 10 in the standings, to where the bottom 6 are your Top 6 in the standings for playoffs. It is always a wonder at the beginning of the season of who is gonna get a free ride to the playoffs based off of who they play. So far the schedule has been on point with who makes playoffs and who doe not.
The Second table we have is who has the most luck in the league so far as well. Why This is the average total for each opponent as I explained above lets compare the difference to your actual points allowed to see who is getting shafted and who is not.
Taking this here you can form your own opinion of the Title Contenders, Playoff teams, and the better luck next year teams. The difference is wild as Ryan’s average opponents score 15.4 less and Erik’s opponents score 29.8 more. The difference in this I hope shows is luck is not always on your side as Nauch having the second lowest PA allowed average even with statistically the toughest schedule, gave him an opportunity to thrive and did not take advantage of. Taking Ant for example as his is the closest to what his opponents have been. 3 of his matches have been blowouts where 3 of them have been decided by 15 points or less. Seeing this here I would like to give a shout out to Joe and Wings as they have each had their struggles this year with lineups and battle when the odds are against them. Also would like to just say sorry to Erik as it really is Fuck ERIK szn according to the league when they play you lmaoo.
The Next Table I have here is the Over Achiever. This will show the difference of what your projected points through 6 weeks are to what you actually scored through the 6 weeks. That way you can see if you are being a projection whore for the right people.
This is the first year we have seen Gio not be a major projection whore and it has paid off as he his scoring a difference of 16.25 higher each week then what he is projected. The first 4 teams are definitely exceeding expectations each week with their projections. The 5th team in Ryan is doing a little bit better then projected to where teams 6-9 are almost right on the money every week with their projections and what they actually score. I would just like to say sorry to Ant as this has got to be tragic to see a team so highly praised on paper at the beginning of the year to being this. Losing Chubb did suck, but outside of that. The underperforming has been horrendous.
When I analyzed this, and put it all together this is what the standings would be. Keep in mind this is taking the averages and applying and subtracting the differentials to each score.
1. Chuck 6-0
2. Gio 5-1
3. Ryan 5-1
4. Bryan 4-2 ( loses to Nauch by .94)
5. Wings 3-3
6. Rob 2-4
7. Joe 2-4
8. Nauch 2-4
9. Erik 1-5
10. Ant 0-6
As you can see not much changes here standings wise except for Rob getting into the playoff picture over Joe due to PF.
I just wanted to show the difference in the season of what happening rather then what the numbers say. With this here is my tier list of teams based on the tiers I stated earlier. This is not in any particular order in tiers just what teams are there.
Title Contenders –
Gio – The raining Champ with no surprise is here, out performing your projections and finding players such as Nico Collins and Zack Moss to fill some spots till you made some trades is the reason you are in this category. You went and made a couple trades today which have made your team on paper much paper. The duo that has carried you and MVP’s of your team are Travis Etienne and Zack Moss.
Chuck – This team has performed what it has been projected almost each and every week. This team is consistent. Being the highest projected team each week and being the most consistent is why this team is in the title contention. The duo that has carried you and MVP’s of your team are Tyreek Hill and Tua.
Wings – This team is much better then what the record shows. This team has shown major explosiveness and has a few guys that can you know you can count on when you need a performance. The duo that has carried you and MVP’s of your team are Josh Allen and the Sun god St. Brown.
Playoff Teams –
Bryan – Bryan, I know this part is gonna piss you off. I just could not throw you in title contenders and here is why. Mostert is having a monster year scoring, but Jeff wilson coming back and wanting to keep Mostert fresh and rotating backs is something the dolphins love to do. I would expect Mostert to come back down to earth and be a solid back Rb2, but dont expect his production to stay the same. Josh Jacobs coming off of his best year of his career to now having his worst. He is catching the ball more which is keeping him afloat. Puka Nakua was a great find and now with Kupp back we are seeing him come back down to earth a little bit, why solid. Having 2 receivers from the same team on a team that looks to be competitive can suck as you do not know what he can give. Adam Thielen is a hard worker and as long as hes healthy, hes solid. You are right there for Title contenders, figure out the rb situation and a little depth. This team can go a long way.
Ryan – Losing Justin Jefferson hurts. Trading Kenneth walker and Pickens to get AJ brown was great receiver wise. Now you are in shambles for an RB and for a flex. Trying to figure out a TE is always a fun fantasy line. Hoping JJettas comes back is a big thing for you right now. I think you should put a couple draft picks to use and get a guy. This team is built for playoffs. However, if your running backs continue to fall off I expect this team to continue to under perform.
Joe – This is your best shot in years to be in the playoffs. You are missing a Star. That is it. Mark Andrews has not been that great and Gibbs has well not been great. This team just needs to get healthy and I think you have time. Adding Kyren was great and Kirk gonna be playing from behind in a lot of games. Patience is key for this team, however you need a guy.
Rob – Rob, you want to win the fucking thing right? Pay attention to the damn waiver wire lmao. You could’ve have Adam Thielen, Puka Nuka or Kyren Williams if you did. This team would probably be in a much better position. Jacoby Meyers has been a great grab. However you have no flex and your bench is horrendous. Quentin Johnston has scored less then 10 fantasy points. You have 3 QB’s on your roster. You have 3 IR spots and do not use them. Even when you have players on IR. The problem with your team every year is you refuse to go get pieces to win. However, the team on paper is to good not to be in the playoff teams. Hope this is a wake up call to want to win.
Better luck Next year squads –
Nauch, the running back draft strategy worked out for you. You have 4 studs. However, you refusing to really trade any of them for what their current value is and not the name will effect you. Your receivers are already terrible and I mean terrible. Kittle has been a huge bust. You need to trade one of your guys and get some pieces. You have the pieces to lose some value in a trade to build a well rounded team. Then you trade a 4th for Deebo Samuel who turned into the 3rd option on this offense.
Erik, Brother. Honestly You have just been getting Fucked all year. However your team has been ass as fuck. You broke the points record, however you should just accept that as your best this year. If you do not have that one week this team has the second lowest scoring in the league. You think everyone is tryna take advantage of you in a trade, but you took advantage of Nauch. If you want to turn your season around then now would be the time to start.
Ant, good luck tank commander.
The last Table that I have is the Projected toughest schedule for the rest of the season. The way I got this is just adding the average PF of each opponent you will face for weeks 7 through 14.
Lets see if this is how the standings will be at the end of the season in reverse order for weeks 7-14. Or if the numbers lie.
As you can see comparing this to the tier list above some teams can make a giant leap. Remember do not take the tier list to personal as we are 6 games in. However, we can see a shake up like no other in the standings or even in the season. After week 14 we shall see who had the toughest schedule from what is projected. However I am going to give you my projected records for the end of the season to see how I do when taking into consideration all yall trade horniness and how you guys act already.
1. Chuck 9-5
2. Gio 9-5
3. Bryan 8-6
4. Wings 8-6
5. Ryan 7-7
6. Rob 6-8
7. Joe 6-8
8. Nauch 5-9
9. Erik 4-10
10. Ant 1-13
Hope Yall enjoy this read. Hopefully it fuels a fire in some of you. Lets see what happens.