Originally Posted On beatchuckie.blogspot.com October 3, 2019
Author: Wings
So, I finally got my first win, and my first thought was “how many more games can I afford to lose this season?” 1-3’s a big hole to start the season
First, let’s look at last year’s regular season standings and each team’s record week 5 (source: blog):
- Joe 12-1 (Started 4-0)
- Erik 9-4 (Started 3-1)
- Chuck 8-5 (Started 2-2)
- Hurtado 7-6 (Started 1-3)
- Wings 7-6 (Started 3-1)
- Nauch 7-6 (Started 2-2)
- Ant 6-7 (Started 2-2)
- Gio 5-8 (Started 2-2)
- Weege 2-11 (Started 1-3)
- Roberto 2-11 (Started 0-4)
Boiling that down, the magic number was 7 wins to make playoffs as a 6+ seed. We can somewhat guess what each person’s chances are at making playoffs moving forward. Obviously every season is different, we got rid of the 7 and 8 seed and the standings are a bit different; personally, I also think the league is more competitive this year than it was last. As we get closer to the end of the season, I can start adjusting expectations better.
3-1 teams (Gio, Erik, Chuck, Roberto, Nauch)
- 5 teams 3-1 or better this season (vs 3 last season)
- Both bye weeks secured by 3-1 teams or better
- All 3-1 teams were a 5 seed or better
- The teams in first and second place week 5 both secured bye weeks
- Need to go 4-5 rest of season to get 7 wins
- Analysis: Both byes will very likely be won by someone in this group; considering it’s a more crowded field, it’s no guarantee that it’ll be the current 1 and 2. I believe that out of these 5, one will miss playoffs based off of last season’s trends.
2-2 teams (Alex)
- One team at 2-2 this season (4 last season)
- Two 2-2 teams secured a 6 seed or better, the other two received seeds 7 and 8
- Need to go 5-4 rest of season to get 7 wins
- Analysis: If the playoffs started today, Alex would sneak in at the 6. Being in between the two main groups in the standings, he can just as easily climb further up as he can tumble down. Odds may be close to 50/50.
1-3 teams (Ant, Wings, Hurtado)
- Three teams with a 1-3 record this season (2 last season)
- One made playoffs at the 4 seed, the other ended in 9th
- Need to go 6-3 rest of season to get 7 wins
- Analysis: Hurtado oddly enough finds himself in this situation yet again, and is living proof that climbing out of this hole is indeed possible. That being said, at maximum one of these three can be expected to make playoffs (assuming at least one 2-2 or 3-1 team collapses)
Joe and 4
- One team with an 0-4 record (1 last season)
- Did not make playoffs
- Need to go 7-2 rest of season
- Analysis: While the odds are stacked against him, Joe’s team is not Robertos of last year, and can still pull off a miraculous run to sneak into the 6 seed with his brother’s voodoo magic.